Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Vranje vs Sindjelic Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
11/18/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 20Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dinamo Vranje52%
×Draw25%
Sindjelic Beograd24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vranje
1.65
Sindjelic Beograd
1.04

Dinamo Vranje creates 59% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 34 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje
1.50
Sindjelic Beograd
0.74

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje
1.34
Sindjelic Beograd
1.79

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw
76%
Dinamo Vranje or Sindjelic Beograd
75%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
48%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
28%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
81%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
49%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
23%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
65%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
28%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
68%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 1.50 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.74 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more
52%
level
25%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
24%

Dinamo Vranje at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dinamo Vranje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Vranje vs Sindjelic Beograd

Dinamo Vranje beat Sindjelic Beograd 4-1 in Prva Liga on November 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion YUMCO in Vranje.