Dinamo Vranje 2–3 Loznica: Result & Stats

Dinamo Vranje

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Loznica

D. Nedeljković 82'

M. Keča 28'

N. Milinković 90+4'

S. Stanojlović 51'

G. Matić 10'

5/19/2021

Prva Liga · Round 34Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dinamo Vranje43%

×Draw27%

Loznica30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo VranjeExpected goals in this matchLoznica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.06

Dinamo Vranje

1.33

Loznica

1.06

Dinamo Vranje creates 25% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 73 away

1.50

creates per match

0.78

1.34

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje

1.50

Loznica

0.78

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje

1.34

Loznica

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Loznica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

Loznica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw

70%

Dinamo Vranje or Loznica

73%

Draw or Loznica

57%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+

20%

Loznica wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals

74%

Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals

38%

Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals

15%

Loznica 1+ goals

65%

Loznica 2+ goals

29%

Loznica 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)

59%

Loznica (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Loznica away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 1.50 + Loznica defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.33

Loznica attack 0.78 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more

43%

level

27%

Loznica scores more

30%

Dinamo Vranje at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dinamo Vranje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

G. Matić

28'

M. Keča

34'

D. Baždarević← M. Stevanović

46'

E. Dolovac← N. Ćirković

46'

V. Ilić← M. Keča

46'

A. Oikonomikos← M. Stoiljković

46'

N. Janjusevic← M. Ilić

46'

Đ. Belić← B. Vraštanović

51'

S. Stanojlović

63'

V. Balabanović← B. Veškovac

75'

B. Bogdanović← G. Matić

82'

D. Nedeljković

87'

M. Bogićević← A. Matić

90+4'

N. Milinković

Dinamo

Loznica

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: D. Antić

34'▲D. Baždarević←▼M. Stevanović

46'▲E. Dolovac←▼N. Ćirković

46'▲V. Ilić←▼M. Keča

46'▲A. Oikonomikos←▼M. Stoiljković

63'▲V. Balabanović←▼B. Veškovac

Dinamo Vranje substitutes

BaždarevićDolovacIlićOikonomikosBalabanović

Manager: M. Radić

46'▲N. Janjusevic←▼M. Ilić

46'▲Đ. Belić←▼B. Vraštanović

75'▲B. Bogdanović←▼G. Matić

87'▲M. Bogićević←▼A. Matić

Loznica substitutes

JanjusevicBelićBogdanovićBogićević