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Dinamo Vranje vs Kabel Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kabel Novi Sad
Kabel Novi Sad
6/20/2020Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 30Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dinamo Vranje45%
×Draw26%
Kabel Novi Sad29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vranje
1.46
Kabel Novi Sad
1.12

Dinamo Vranje creates 30% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 71 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje
1.50
Kabel Novi Sad
0.90

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje
1.34
Kabel Novi Sad
1.41

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par
Kabel Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

Kabel Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw
71%
Dinamo Vranje or Kabel Novi Sad
74%
Draw or Kabel Novi Sad
55%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
22%
Kabel Novi Sad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
43%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
18%
Kabel Novi Sad 1+ goals
67%
Kabel Novi Sad 2+ goals
31%
Kabel Novi Sad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
61%
Kabel Novi Sad (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Kabel Novi Sad away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 1.50 + Kabel Novi Sad defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Kabel Novi Sad attack 0.90 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more
45%
level
26%
Kabel Novi Sad scores more
29%

Dinamo Vranje at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dinamo Vranje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Dinamo Vranje 1–0 Kabel Novi Sad

Dinamo Vranje beat Kabel Novi Sad 1-0 in Prva Liga on June 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion YUMCO in Vranje.