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Dinamo Vranje vs Jagodina — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
FT
1 – 4
Jagodina
Jagodina
10/16/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 10Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dinamo Vranje42%
×Draw23%
Jagodina35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vranje
1.69
Jagodina
1.54

Dinamo Vranje creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 83 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje
2.00
Jagodina
1.59

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje
1.50
Jagodina
1.39

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par
Jagodina+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

Jagodina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw
65%
Dinamo Vranje or Jagodina
77%
Draw or Jagodina
58%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
21%
Jagodina wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
82%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
50%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
24%
Jagodina 1+ goals
79%
Jagodina 2+ goals
45%
Jagodina 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
54%
Jagodina (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Jagodina away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.39 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 2.00 + Jagodina defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.69

Jagodina attack 1.59 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more
42%
level
23%
Jagodina scores more
35%

Dinamo Vranje at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo Vranje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Vranje vs Jagodina

Jagodina beat Dinamo Vranje 4-1 in Srpska Liga - East on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion YUMCO in Vranje.