Dinamo Vranje 1–3 IMT Novi Beograd: Result & Stats

Dinamo Vranje

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

IMT Novi Beograd

3/7/2021

Prva Liga · Round 20Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dinamo Vranje34%

×Draw25%

IMT Novi Beograd41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo VranjeExpected goals in this matchIMT Novi Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.46

Dinamo Vranje

1.31

IMT Novi Beograd

1.46

IMT Novi Beograd creates 11% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 54 away

1.50

creates per match

1.57

1.34

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje

1.50

IMT Novi Beograd

1.57

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje

1.34

IMT Novi Beograd

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

IMT Novi Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw

59%

Dinamo Vranje or IMT Novi Beograd

75%

Draw or IMT Novi Beograd

66%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+

15%

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals

73%

Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals

38%

Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals

14%

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

77%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

43%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)

45%

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

IMT Novi Beograd away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 1.50 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.57 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more

34%

level

25%

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

41%

IMT Novi Beograd at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff