Dinamo Vranje 2–0 Buducnost Dobanovci

Dinamo Vranje

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Buducnost Dobanovci

9/21/2019

Prva Liga · Round 10Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dinamo Vranje47%

×Draw26%

Buducnost Dobanovci27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo VranjeExpected goals in this matchBuducnost Dobanovci

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.08

Dinamo Vranje

1.52

Buducnost Dobanovci

1.08

Dinamo Vranje creates 41% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 68 away

1.50

creates per match

0.82

1.34

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje

1.50

Buducnost Dobanovci

0.82

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje

1.34

Buducnost Dobanovci

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Buducnost Dobanovci+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

Buducnost Dobanovci →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw

73%

Dinamo Vranje or Buducnost Dobanovci

74%

Draw or Buducnost Dobanovci

53%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+

24%

Buducnost Dobanovci wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals

78%

Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals

45%

Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals

20%

Buducnost Dobanovci 1+ goals

66%

Buducnost Dobanovci 2+ goals

29%

Buducnost Dobanovci 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)

64%

Buducnost Dobanovci (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Buducnost Dobanovci away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.54 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 1.50 + Buducnost Dobanovci defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.52

Buducnost Dobanovci attack 0.82 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more

47%

level

26%

Buducnost Dobanovci scores more

27%

Dinamo Vranje at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo Vranje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff