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Dinamo Vranje vs Backa — Super Liga 2018

Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Backa
Backa
10/21/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 12Stadion YUMCO (Vranje)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dinamo Vranje50%
×Draw26%
Backa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vranje
1.52
Backa
0.97

Dinamo Vranje creates 57% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 38 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje
0.94
Backa
0.50

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje
1.44
Backa
2.11

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw
76%
Dinamo Vranje or Backa
74%
Draw or Backa
50%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
25%
Backa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
78%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
45%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
20%
Backa 1+ goals
62%
Backa 2+ goals
25%
Backa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
67%
Backa (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

Backa away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.11 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.94 + Backa defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.52

Backa attack 0.50 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more
50%
level
26%
Backa scores more
24%

Dinamo Vranje at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dinamo Vranje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Vranje vs Backa

Dinamo Vranje and Backa drew 1-1 in Super Liga on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion YUMCO (Vranje).