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Dinamo Vologda vs Zorkiy — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dinamo Vologda
Dinamo Vologda
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Zorkiy
Zorkiy
6/4/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 11Stadion Zorkij

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dinamo Vologda44%
×Draw27%
Zorkiy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vologda
1.38
Zorkiy
1.06

Dinamo Vologda creates 30% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 24 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vologda
1.64
Zorkiy
1.13

allows per match

Dinamo Vologda
1.00
Zorkiy
1.13

finishing

Dinamo Vologda+0.00on par
Zorkiy+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vologda ↓

Zorkiy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Vologda or draw
71%
Dinamo Vologda or Zorkiy
73%
Draw or Zorkiy
56%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vologda wins by 2+
21%
Zorkiy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dinamo Vologda 1+ goals
75%
Dinamo Vologda 2+ goals
40%
Dinamo Vologda 3+ goals
16%
Zorkiy 1+ goals
65%
Zorkiy 2+ goals
29%
Zorkiy 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vologda (draw refunded)
60%
Zorkiy (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vologda at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.00 · 61 matches

Zorkiy away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vologda attack 1.64 + Zorkiy defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.38

Zorkiy attack 1.13 + Dinamo Vologda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dinamo Vologda scores more
44%
level
27%
Zorkiy scores more
29%

Dinamo Vologda at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dinamo Vologda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Dinamo Vologda 3–1 Zorkiy

Dinamo Vologda beat Zorkiy 3-1 in Second League - Group 2 on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Zorkij in Krasnogorsk.