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Dinamo Vologda vs Elektron VN — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dinamo Vologda
Dinamo Vologda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Elektron VN
Elektron VN
8/6/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dinamo Vologda73%
×Draw17%
Elektron VN10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vologda
2.34
Elektron VN
0.73

Dinamo Vologda creates 221% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 24 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vologda
1.64
Elektron VN
0.46

allows per match

Dinamo Vologda
1.00
Elektron VN
3.04

finishing

Dinamo Vologda+0.00on par
Elektron VN+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vologda ↓

Elektron VN →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dinamo Vologda or draw
90%
Dinamo Vologda or Elektron VN
83%
Draw or Elektron VN
27%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vologda wins by 2+
50%
Elektron VN wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Dinamo Vologda 1+ goals
90%
Dinamo Vologda 2+ goals
67%
Dinamo Vologda 3+ goals
41%
Elektron VN 1+ goals
52%
Elektron VN 2+ goals
17%
Elektron VN 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vologda (draw refunded)
88%
Elektron VN (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vologda at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.00 · 61 matches

Elektron VN away — creates 0.46, concedes 3.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vologda attack 1.64 + Elektron VN defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.34

Elektron VN attack 0.46 + Dinamo Vologda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Dinamo Vologda scores more
73%
level
17%
Elektron VN scores more
10%

Dinamo Vologda at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Dinamo Vologda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Dinamo Vologda 1–0 Elektron VN

Dinamo Vologda beat Elektron VN 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Vologda.