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Dinamo Vologda vs Baltika BFU — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dinamo Vologda
Dinamo Vologda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
10/1/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Dinamo Vologda46%
×Draw25%
Baltika BFU28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vologda
1.53
Baltika BFU
1.13

Dinamo Vologda creates 35% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 53 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vologda
1.64
Baltika BFU
1.25

allows per match

Dinamo Vologda
1.00
Baltika BFU
1.42

finishing

Dinamo Vologda+0.00on par
Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vologda ↓

Baltika BFU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dinamo Vologda or draw
72%
Dinamo Vologda or Baltika BFU
75%
Draw or Baltika BFU
54%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vologda wins by 2+
23%
Baltika BFU wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dinamo Vologda 1+ goals
78%
Dinamo Vologda 2+ goals
45%
Dinamo Vologda 3+ goals
20%
Baltika BFU 1+ goals
68%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
31%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vologda (draw refunded)
62%
Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vologda at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.00 · 61 matches

Baltika BFU away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vologda attack 1.64 + Baltika BFU defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.53

Baltika BFU attack 1.25 + Dinamo Vologda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo Vologda scores more
46%
level
25%
Baltika BFU scores more
28%

Dinamo Vologda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo Vologda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Dinamo Vologda 0–1 Baltika BFU

Baltika BFU beat Dinamo Vologda 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Vologda.