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Dinamo Vladivostok vs Peresvet Podolsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
5/15/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 8Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Dinamo Vladivostok61%
×Draw21%
Peresvet Podolsk18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vladivostok
2.06
Peresvet Podolsk
1.04

Dinamo Vladivostok creates 98% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 42 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.61
Peresvet Podolsk
1.24

allows per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
0.84
Peresvet Podolsk
2.52

finishing

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par
Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vladivostok ↓

Peresvet Podolsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Vladivostok or draw
82%
Dinamo Vladivostok or Peresvet Podolsk
79%
Draw or Peresvet Podolsk
39%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
37%
Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
87%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
61%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
34%
Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
65%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
28%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
77%
Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vladivostok at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.84 · 56 matches

Peresvet Podolsk away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.61 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.06

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.24 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
61%
level
21%
Peresvet Podolsk scores more
18%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Vladivostok vs Peresvet Podolsk

Dinamo Vladivostok and Peresvet Podolsk drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 3 on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Vladivostok.