Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Vladivostok vs Novosibirsk — Cup 2019

Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk
8/31/2022CupCup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundStadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dinamo Vladivostok62%
×Draw25%
Novosibirsk14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.59
Novosibirsk
0.59

Dinamo Vladivostok creates 169% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.38
Novosibirsk
0.80

allows per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
0.38
Novosibirsk
1.80

finishing

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par
Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vladivostok ↓

Novosibirsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Vladivostok or draw
86%
Dinamo Vladivostok or Novosibirsk
75%
Draw or Novosibirsk
38%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
34%
Novosibirsk wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
80%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
47%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
21%
Novosibirsk 1+ goals
45%
Novosibirsk 2+ goals
12%
Novosibirsk 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
82%
Novosibirsk (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vladivostok at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Novosibirsk away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.38 + Novosibirsk defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.59

Novosibirsk attack 0.80 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
62%
level
25%
Novosibirsk scores more
14%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Dinamo Vladivostok 1–1 Novosibirsk

Dinamo Vladivostok and Novosibirsk drew 1-1 in Cup on August 31, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Vladivostok.