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Dinamo Vladivostok vs Balashikha — Second League - Group 3 2020

Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Balashikha
Balashikha
9/7/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dinamo Vladivostok67%
×Draw21%
Balashikha12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.93
Balashikha
0.66

Dinamo Vladivostok creates 192% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.61
Balashikha
0.47

allows per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
0.84
Balashikha
2.24

finishing

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par
Balashikha+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vladivostok ↓

Balashikha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Vladivostok or draw
88%
Dinamo Vladivostok or Balashikha
79%
Draw or Balashikha
33%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
41%
Balashikha wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
85%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
57%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
30%
Balashikha 1+ goals
48%
Balashikha 2+ goals
14%
Balashikha 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
85%
Balashikha (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vladivostok at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.84 · 56 matches

Balashikha away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.61 + Balashikha defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.93

Balashikha attack 0.47 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
67%
level
21%
Balashikha scores more
12%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Vladivostok vs Balashikha

Dinamo Vladivostok beat Balashikha 3-0 in Second League - Group 3 on September 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Vladivostok.