Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Vladivostok vs Avangard Kursk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
11/11/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Dinamo Vladivostok49%
×Draw25%
Avangard Kursk26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.55
Avangard Kursk
1.06

Dinamo Vladivostok creates 46% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 57 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
1.61
Avangard Kursk
1.28

allows per match

Dinamo Vladivostok
0.84
Avangard Kursk
1.49

finishing

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par
Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vladivostok ↓

Avangard Kursk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Vladivostok or draw
74%
Dinamo Vladivostok or Avangard Kursk
75%
Draw or Avangard Kursk
51%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
25%
Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
79%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
46%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
20%
Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
65%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
29%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
65%
Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vladivostok at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.84 · 56 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.61 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.55

Avangard Kursk attack 1.28 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
49%
level
25%
Avangard Kursk scores more
26%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Vladivostok vs Avangard Kursk

Dinamo Vladivostok and Avangard Kursk drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 3 on November 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Vladivostok.