Dinamo Vladivostok 1–0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Dinamo Vladivostok

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

5/10/2026

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Spring Season Silver - 12Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Vladivostok40%

×Draw28%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo VladivostokExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.13

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.28

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.13

Dinamo Vladivostok creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

0.93

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.00

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.33

allows per match

Dinamo Vladivostok

0.93

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vladivostok ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Vladivostok or draw

67%

Dinamo Vladivostok or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

72%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz

60%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+

18%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals

37%

Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals

14%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

68%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

31%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)

55%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vladivostok at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.00 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.33 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more

40%

level

28%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

33%

Dinamo Vladivostok at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Vladivostok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff