Dinamo Tirana 1–0 Veleçiku Koplik: Result & Stats

Dinamo Tirana

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Veleçiku Koplik

3/3/2021

1st Division · Round 13Kompleksi Internacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dinamo Tirana58%

×Draw25%

Veleçiku Koplik17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo TiranaExpected goals in this matchVeleçiku Koplik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.74

Dinamo Tirana

1.62

Veleçiku Koplik

0.74

Dinamo Tirana creates 119% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 24 away

1.53

creates per match

0.79

0.69

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Dinamo Tirana

1.53

Veleçiku Koplik

0.79

allows per match

Dinamo Tirana

0.69

Veleçiku Koplik

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par

Veleçiku Koplik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tirana ↓

Veleçiku Koplik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Tirana or draw

83%

Dinamo Tirana or Veleçiku Koplik

75%

Draw or Veleçiku Koplik

42%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+

32%

Veleçiku Koplik wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals

80%

Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals

48%

Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals

22%

Veleçiku Koplik 1+ goals

52%

Veleçiku Koplik 2+ goals

17%

Veleçiku Koplik 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)

78%

Veleçiku Koplik (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tirana at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.69 · 36 matches

Veleçiku Koplik away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.53 + Veleçiku Koplik defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.62

Veleçiku Koplik attack 0.79 + Dinamo Tirana defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dinamo Tirana scores more

58%

level

25%

Veleçiku Koplik scores more

17%

Dinamo Tirana at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dinamo Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff