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Dinamo Tirana vs Tërbuni Pukë — 1st Division 2019

Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
CANC
14:00
Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
5/6/20231st Division1st Division · Round 25Stadiumi Selman Stërmasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Dinamo Tirana56%
×Draw28%
Tërbuni Pukë16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Tirana
1.38
Tërbuni Pukë
0.60

Dinamo Tirana creates 130% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 39 away

creates per match

Dinamo Tirana
1.53
Tërbuni Pukë
0.51

allows per match

Dinamo Tirana
0.69
Tërbuni Pukë
1.23

finishing

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par
Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tirana ↓

Tërbuni Pukë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dinamo Tirana or draw
84%
Dinamo Tirana or Tërbuni Pukë
72%
Draw or Tërbuni Pukë
44%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+
28%
Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals
75%
Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals
40%
Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals
16%
Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals
45%
Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals
12%
Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)
78%
Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tirana at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.69 · 36 matches

Tërbuni Pukë away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.53 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Tërbuni Pukë attack 0.51 + Dinamo Tirana defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dinamo Tirana scores more
56%
level
28%
Tërbuni Pukë scores more
16%

Dinamo Tirana at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dinamo Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dinamo Tirana host Tërbuni Pukë

May 6, 2023: Dinamo Tirana take on Tërbuni Pukë in 1st Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dinamo Tirana host Tërbuni Pukë at Stadiumi Selman Stërmasi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.