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Dinamo Tirana vs Partizani Tirana II — 1st Division 2019

Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Partizani Tirana II
Partizani Tirana II
3/13/20211st Division1st Division · Round 15Kompleksi Internacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dinamo Tirana47%
×Draw26%
Partizani Tirana II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Tirana
1.46
Partizani Tirana II
1.03

Dinamo Tirana creates 42% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dinamo Tirana
1.53
Partizani Tirana II
1.38

allows per match

Dinamo Tirana
0.69
Partizani Tirana II
1.38

finishing

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par
Partizani Tirana II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tirana ↓

Partizani Tirana II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Tirana or draw
73%
Dinamo Tirana or Partizani Tirana II
74%
Draw or Partizani Tirana II
53%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+
23%
Partizani Tirana II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals
43%
Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals
18%
Partizani Tirana II 1+ goals
64%
Partizani Tirana II 2+ goals
28%
Partizani Tirana II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)
64%
Partizani Tirana II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tirana at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.69 · 36 matches

Partizani Tirana II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.53 + Partizani Tirana II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Partizani Tirana II attack 1.38 + Dinamo Tirana defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dinamo Tirana scores more
47%
level
26%
Partizani Tirana II scores more
27%

Dinamo Tirana at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Tirana vs Partizani Tirana II

Dinamo Tirana beat Partizani Tirana II 3-0 in 1st Division on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Kompleksi Internacional in Pezë Helmës.