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Dinamo Tirana vs Partizani — Superliga 2018

Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Partizani
Partizani
10/29/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 9Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dinamo Tirana36%
×Draw29%
Partizani35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Tirana
1.11
Partizani
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 146 away

creates per match

Dinamo Tirana
1.21
Partizani
1.19

allows per match

Dinamo Tirana
1.00
Partizani
1.02

finishing

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par
Partizani+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tirana ↓

Partizani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Tirana or draw
65%
Dinamo Tirana or Partizani
71%
Draw or Partizani
64%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+
15%
Partizani wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals
67%
Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals
30%
Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals
10%
Partizani 1+ goals
66%
Partizani 2+ goals
30%
Partizani 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)
51%
Partizani (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tirana at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 73 matches

Partizani away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.21 + Partizani defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.11

Partizani attack 1.19 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dinamo Tirana scores more
36%
level
29%
Partizani scores more
35%

Dinamo Tirana at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dinamo Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Dinamo Tirana 2–0 Partizani

Dinamo Tirana beat Partizani 2-0 in Superliga on October 29, 2025.

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasani.