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Dinamo Tirana vs FK Kukesi — Superliga 2018

Dinamo Tirana
Dinamo Tirana
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
10/29/2021SuperligaSuperliga · Round 7Air Albania Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dinamo Tirana39%
×Draw28%
FK Kukesi33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Tirana
1.25
FK Kukesi
1.11

Dinamo Tirana creates 13% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 108 away

creates per match

Dinamo Tirana
1.21
FK Kukesi
1.22

allows per match

Dinamo Tirana
1.00
FK Kukesi
1.30

finishing

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par
FK Kukesi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tirana ↓

FK Kukesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Tirana or draw
67%
Dinamo Tirana or FK Kukesi
72%
Draw or FK Kukesi
61%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+
17%
FK Kukesi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals
13%
FK Kukesi 1+ goals
67%
FK Kukesi 2+ goals
30%
FK Kukesi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)
55%
FK Kukesi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tirana at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 73 matches

FK Kukesi away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.30 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.21 + FK Kukesi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

FK Kukesi attack 1.22 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo Tirana scores more
39%
level
28%
FK Kukesi scores more
33%

Dinamo Tirana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Tirana vs FK Kukesi

FK Kukesi beat Dinamo Tirana 1-0 in Superliga on October 29, 2021.

The match was played at Air Albania Stadium in Tirana.