Dinamo Tirana 0–2 Erzeni Shijak: Result & Stats

Dinamo Tirana

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Erzeni Shijak

10/19/2019

1st Division · Round 5Kompleksi Internacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Dinamo Tirana48%

×Draw27%

Erzeni Shijak25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo TiranaExpected goals in this matchErzeni Shijak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.92

Dinamo Tirana

1.41

Erzeni Shijak

0.92

Dinamo Tirana creates 53% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 55 away

1.53

creates per match

1.15

0.69

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Dinamo Tirana

1.53

Erzeni Shijak

1.15

allows per match

Dinamo Tirana

0.69

Erzeni Shijak

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tirana ↓

Erzeni Shijak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Tirana or draw

75%

Dinamo Tirana or Erzeni Shijak

73%

Draw or Erzeni Shijak

52%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+

24%

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals

76%

Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals

41%

Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals

17%

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals

60%

Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals

23%

Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)

66%

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tirana at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.69 · 36 matches

Erzeni Shijak away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.53 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.15 + Dinamo Tirana defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dinamo Tirana scores more

48%

level

27%

Erzeni Shijak scores more

25%

Dinamo Tirana at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dinamo Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff