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Dinamo Tbilisi vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi
Preview
17:00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
7/23/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundMikheil Meskhi Stadium
38%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
model favours
35%27%38%

Dinamo Tbilisi score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dinamo Tbilisi35%
×Draw27%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Tbilisi
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dinamo Tbilisi
1.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.88

allows per match

Dinamo Tbilisi
1.75
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.50

finishing

Dinamo Tbilisi+0.00on par
FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tbilisi ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Tbilisi or draw
62%
Dinamo Tbilisi or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
73%
Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
65%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tbilisi wins by 2+
15%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dinamo Tbilisi 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Tbilisi 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Tbilisi 3+ goals
13%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
73%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
38%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tbilisi (draw refunded)
48%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tbilisi at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tbilisi attack 1.00 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 0.88 + Dinamo Tbilisi defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dinamo Tbilisi scores more
35%
level
27%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
38%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FK Zalgiris Vilnius have won 4 in a row
  • FK Zalgiris Vilnius score first in only 32% of matches
  • 50% of Dinamo Tbilisi’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tbilisi
LWDLW
Vilnius
WWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Tbilisi vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — Match Preview

Dinamo Tbilisi face FK Zalgiris Vilnius on July 23, 2026 in this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dinamo Tbilisi host FK Zalgiris Vilnius at Mikheil Meskhi Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.