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Dinamo Tbilisi II vs Spaeri — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Dinamo Tbilisi II
Dinamo Tbilisi II
Preview
14:00
Spaeri
Spaeri
7/25/2026David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · Round of 32
Big match
63%
Spaeri
model favours
19%18%63%

Spaeri score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
73%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dinamo Tbilisi II19%
×Draw18%
Spaeri63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.31
Spaeri
2.50

Spaeri creates 91% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dinamo Tbilisi II
2.13
Spaeri
3.50

allows per match

Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.50
Spaeri
0.50

finishing

Dinamo Tbilisi II+0.00on par
Spaeri+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tbilisi II ↓

Spaeri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Dinamo Tbilisi II or draw
37%
Dinamo Tbilisi II or Spaeri
82%
Draw or Spaeri
81%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tbilisi II wins by 2+
8%
Spaeri wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Dinamo Tbilisi II 1+ goals
73%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 2+ goals
38%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 3+ goals
14%
Spaeri 1+ goals
92%
Spaeri 2+ goals
71%
Spaeri 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
23%
Spaeri (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tbilisi II at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Spaeri away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tbilisi II attack 2.13 + Spaeri defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Spaeri attack 3.50 + Dinamo Tbilisi II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Dinamo Tbilisi II scores more
19%
level
18%
Spaeri scores more
63%

Spaeri at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Spaeri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Spaeri win just 8% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
WLWWL
Spaeri
LLDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Tbilisi II vs Spaeri — Match Preview

Dinamo Tbilisi II face Spaeri on July 25, 2026 in this David Kipiani Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.