Dinamo Tbilisi II 2–1 Spaeri: Result & Stats

Dinamo Tbilisi II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Spaeri

N. K. Donkor 90'

T. Gobeshia 43'

Z. Basilashvili 70'

10/17/2025

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 28Vitali Daraselia Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Dinamo Tbilisi II40%

×Draw24%

Spaeri36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Tbilisi IIExpected goals in this matchSpaeri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.52

Dinamo Tbilisi II

1.60

Spaeri

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 64 away

1.92

creates per match

1.53

1.51

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Dinamo Tbilisi II

1.92

Spaeri

1.53

allows per match

Dinamo Tbilisi II

1.51

Spaeri

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Spaeri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tbilisi II ↓

Spaeri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Tbilisi II or draw

64%

Dinamo Tbilisi II or Spaeri

76%

Draw or Spaeri

60%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tbilisi II wins by 2+

20%

Spaeri wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dinamo Tbilisi II 1+ goals

80%

Dinamo Tbilisi II 2+ goals

47%

Dinamo Tbilisi II 3+ goals

22%

Spaeri 1+ goals

78%

Spaeri 2+ goals

45%

Spaeri 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tbilisi II (draw refunded)

52%

Spaeri (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tbilisi II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.51 · 59 matches

Spaeri away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.28 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tbilisi II attack 1.92 + Spaeri defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.60

Spaeri attack 1.53 + Dinamo Tbilisi II defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Tbilisi II scores more

40%

level

24%

Spaeri scores more

36%

Dinamo Tbilisi II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Tbilisi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

T. Gobeshia

22'

N. Tkalia

43'

T. Gobeshia↳ M. Mushkudiani

46'

S. Mathenjwa← G. Tsetskhladze

59'

A. Mashava← L. Bubuteishvili

59'

N. K. Donkor← I. Mekhtievi

61'

61'

65'

65'

67'

T. Tsalughelashvili← N. Chagunava

67'

L. Kobakhidze← Z. Golubiani

67'

Z. Basilashvili← G. Tsetskhladze

68'

N. K. Donkor

70'

B. Burdiashvili←

70'

L. Nachkebia← M. Mushkudiani

70'

Z. Basilashvili↳ L. Barabadze

71'

72'

79'

79'

80'

I. Arghvliani← L. Barabadze

90+4'

G. Nikolaishvili

90'

N. K. Donkor

Dinamo

Spaeri

23

Chomakhid

22

▼

2

4

14

17

12

A

▼

Barabadze

11

▼

Tsetskhla

24

▼

Golubiani

7

Gegiadze

9

▼

Tsetskhla

1

Tartarash

31

Tsetskhla

3

⚽

17

35

50

34

25

▼

Bubuteish

33

Adrian

24

▼

Mekhtievi

53

A

▼

Mushkudia

Manager: V. Geguchadze

59'▲A. Mashava←▼L. Bubuteishvili

59'▲N. K. Donkor←▼I. Mekhtievi

70'▲B. Burdiashvili←▼—

70'▲L. Nachkebia←▼M. Mushkudiani

Dinamo Tbilisi II substitutes

12Ghaghvishvili6Burdiashvili9Mashava10Sikharulashvili14Donkor15Shedlei23Diakonidze27Nachkebia

Manager: Anzor Kighuradze

46'▲S. Mathenjwa←▼G. Tsetskhladze

67'▲T. Tsalughelashvili←▼N. Chagunava

67'▲L. Kobakhidze←▼Z. Golubiani

67'▲Z. Basilashvili←▼G. Tsetskhladze

80'▲I. Arghvliani←▼L. Barabadze

Spaeri substitutes

27Chakhnashvili3Kachibaia5Tsalughelashvili6Chotalishvili10Kobakhidze13Maghaldadze21Arghvliani30Basilashvili40Mathenjwa

Erovnuli Liga 2: Dinamo Tbilisi II 2–1 Spaeri

Dinamo Tbilisi II beat Spaeri 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on October 17, 2025.

Goals: T. Gobeshia (43'), Z. Basilashvili (70'), N. K. Donkor (90').

The match was played at Vitali Daraselia Academy in Tbilisi.

Dinamo Tbilisi II vs Spaeri — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Erovnuli Liga 2: Dinamo Tbilisi II 2–1 Spaeri