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Dinamo Tbilisi II vs Merani Tbilisi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Dinamo Tbilisi II
Dinamo Tbilisi II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
4/7/2023Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 6Vitali Daraselias Sakhelobis Dinamos Sapekhburto Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Dinamo Tbilisi II47%
×Draw22%
Merani Tbilisi30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.88
Merani Tbilisi
1.47

Dinamo Tbilisi II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 64 away

creates per match

Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.73
Merani Tbilisi
1.39

allows per match

Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.55
Merani Tbilisi
2.03

finishing

Dinamo Tbilisi II+0.00on par
Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tbilisi II ↓

Merani Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dinamo Tbilisi II or draw
70%
Dinamo Tbilisi II or Merani Tbilisi
78%
Draw or Merani Tbilisi
53%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tbilisi II wins by 2+
26%
Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dinamo Tbilisi II 1+ goals
85%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 2+ goals
56%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 3+ goals
29%
Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
77%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
43%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
61%
Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tbilisi II at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 56 matches

Merani Tbilisi away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.03 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tbilisi II attack 1.73 + Merani Tbilisi defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.88

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.39 + Dinamo Tbilisi II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dinamo Tbilisi II scores more
47%
level
22%
Merani Tbilisi scores more
30%

Dinamo Tbilisi II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo Tbilisi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Tbilisi II 2 – 2 Merani Tbilisi

Dinamo Tbilisi II and Merani Tbilisi drew 2-2 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on April 7, 2023.

The match was played at Vitali Daraselias Sakhelobis Dinamos Sapekhburto Akademia in Tbilisi.