Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Tbilisi II vs Kolkheti Khobi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Dinamo Tbilisi II
Dinamo Tbilisi II
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Kolkheti Khobi
Kolkheti Khobi
11/28/2023Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 35Vitali Daraselias Sakhelobis Dinamos Sapekhburto Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Dinamo Tbilisi II57%
×Draw21%
Kolkheti Khobi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Tbilisi II
2.10
Kolkheti Khobi
1.25

Dinamo Tbilisi II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 36 away

creates per match

Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.73
Kolkheti Khobi
0.94

allows per match

Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.55
Kolkheti Khobi
2.47

finishing

Dinamo Tbilisi II+0.00on par
Kolkheti Khobi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tbilisi II ↓

Kolkheti Khobi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dinamo Tbilisi II or draw
78%
Dinamo Tbilisi II or Kolkheti Khobi
79%
Draw or Kolkheti Khobi
43%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tbilisi II wins by 2+
34%
Kolkheti Khobi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dinamo Tbilisi II 1+ goals
88%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 2+ goals
62%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 3+ goals
35%
Kolkheti Khobi 1+ goals
71%
Kolkheti Khobi 2+ goals
36%
Kolkheti Khobi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
72%
Kolkheti Khobi (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tbilisi II at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 56 matches

Kolkheti Khobi away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.47 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tbilisi II attack 1.73 + Kolkheti Khobi defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.10

Kolkheti Khobi attack 0.94 + Dinamo Tbilisi II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dinamo Tbilisi II scores more
57%
level
21%
Kolkheti Khobi scores more
22%

Dinamo Tbilisi II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dinamo Tbilisi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Tbilisi II vs Kolkheti Khobi

Dinamo Tbilisi II beat Kolkheti Khobi 6-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at Vitali Daraselias Sakhelobis Dinamos Sapekhburto Akademia in Tbilisi.