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Dinamo Stavropol vs SKA Rostov — Second League - Group 1 2020

Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SKA Rostov
SKA Rostov
8/21/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Dinamo Stavropol32%
×Draw25%
SKA Rostov43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Stavropol
1.29
SKA Rostov
1.52

SKA Rostov creates 18% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 58 away

creates per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.40
SKA Rostov
1.79

allows per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.26
SKA Rostov
1.19

finishing

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par
SKA Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Stavropol ↓

SKA Rostov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Stavropol or draw
57%
Dinamo Stavropol or SKA Rostov
75%
Draw or SKA Rostov
68%

Winning margin

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
14%
SKA Rostov wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
37%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
14%
SKA Rostov 1+ goals
78%
SKA Rostov 2+ goals
45%
SKA Rostov 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
43%
SKA Rostov (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Stavropol at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 92 matches

SKA Rostov away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.40 + SKA Rostov defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

SKA Rostov attack 1.79 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dinamo Stavropol scores more
32%
level
25%
SKA Rostov scores more
43%

SKA Rostov at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SKA Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Stavropol vs SKA Rostov

Dinamo Stavropol and SKA Rostov drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 1 on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Stavropol'.