Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Stavropol vs Legion Dynamo — Second League - Group 1 2020

Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Legion Dynamo
Legion Dynamo
5/7/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 1Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Dinamo Stavropol36%
×Draw26%
Legion Dynamo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Stavropol
1.29
Legion Dynamo
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 89 away

creates per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.40
Legion Dynamo
1.39

allows per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.26
Legion Dynamo
1.18

finishing

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par
Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Stavropol ↓

Legion Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Stavropol or draw
62%
Dinamo Stavropol or Legion Dynamo
74%
Draw or Legion Dynamo
64%

Winning margin

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
16%
Legion Dynamo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
37%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
14%
Legion Dynamo 1+ goals
73%
Legion Dynamo 2+ goals
38%
Legion Dynamo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
49%
Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Stavropol at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 92 matches

Legion Dynamo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.40 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.29

Legion Dynamo attack 1.39 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dinamo Stavropol scores more
36%
level
26%
Legion Dynamo scores more
38%

Legion Dynamo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Dinamo Stavropol 1–5 Legion Dynamo

Legion Dynamo beat Dinamo Stavropol 5-1 in Second League - Group 1 on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Stavropol'.