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Dinamo Stavropol vs Essentuki — Second League - Group 1 2020

Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Essentuki
Essentuki
5/16/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Dinamo Stavropol69%
×Draw18%
Essentuki12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Stavropol
2.22
Essentuki
0.81

Dinamo Stavropol creates 174% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 44 away

creates per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.40
Essentuki
0.36

allows per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.26
Essentuki
3.05

finishing

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par
Essentuki+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Stavropol ↓

Essentuki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dinamo Stavropol or draw
88%
Dinamo Stavropol or Essentuki
82%
Draw or Essentuki
31%

Winning margin

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
45%
Essentuki wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
89%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
65%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
38%
Essentuki 1+ goals
56%
Essentuki 2+ goals
19%
Essentuki 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
85%
Essentuki (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Stavropol at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 92 matches

Essentuki away — creates 0.36, concedes 3.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.40 + Essentuki defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 2.22

Essentuki attack 0.36 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Dinamo Stavropol scores more
69%
level
18%
Essentuki scores more
12%

Dinamo Stavropol at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Dinamo Stavropol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Dinamo Stavropol 3–1 Essentuki

Dinamo Stavropol beat Essentuki 3-1 in Second League - Group 1 on May 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Stavropol'.