Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Stavropol vs Dinamo Vladivostok — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Vladivostok
4/5/2026Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Spring Season Silver - 7Essentuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Stavropol39%
×Draw29%
Dinamo Vladivostok32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Stavropol
1.19
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.06

Dinamo Stavropol creates 12% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

creates per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.00

allows per match

Dinamo Stavropol
1.11
Dinamo Vladivostok
1.38

finishing

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par
Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Stavropol ↓

Dinamo Vladivostok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dinamo Stavropol or draw
68%
Dinamo Stavropol or Dinamo Vladivostok
71%
Draw or Dinamo Vladivostok
61%

Winning margin

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
17%
Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
33%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
12%
Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals
65%
Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals
29%
Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
55%
Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Stavropol at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Dinamo Vladivostok away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.00 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.00 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo Stavropol scores more
39%
level
29%
Dinamo Vladivostok scores more
32%

Dinamo Stavropol at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Stavropol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Stavropol vs Dinamo Vladivostok

Dinamo Vladivostok beat Dinamo Stavropol 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Essentuki Arena in Essentuki.