Dinamo Stavropol 0–6 Dinamo Moscow: Result & Stats

Dinamo Stavropol

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 3

Dinamo Moscow

S. Igboun 83'

Y. Gladyshev 71'

D. Fomin 46'

K. Tyukavin 35'

D. Makarov 28'

D. Skopintsev 12'

9/22/2021

Cup · Group Stage - 3Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Stavropol38%

×Draw22%

Dinamo Moscow40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo StavropolExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.81

Dinamo Stavropol

1.77

Dinamo Moscow

1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

1.89

creates per match

1.74

1.89

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Dinamo Stavropol

1.89

Dinamo Moscow

1.74

allows per match

Dinamo Stavropol

1.89

Dinamo Moscow

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Stavropol ↓

Dinamo Moscow →

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Dinamo Stavropol or draw

60%

Dinamo Stavropol or Dinamo Moscow

78%

Draw or Dinamo Moscow

62%

Winning margin

Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+

20%

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals

83%

Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals

53%

Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals

26%

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

84%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

54%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)

49%

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Stavropol at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.89 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.77

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.74 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Stavropol scores more

38%

level

22%

Dinamo Moscow scores more

40%

Dinamo Moscow at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

28'

35'

43'

46'

K. Kolesnikov← S. Tskanjyan

46'

M. Yakovlev← S. Garanzha

46'

S. Igboun← D. Makarov

46'

V. Galkin← N. Moro

46'

Z. Pliev← I. Ordets

46'

D. Fomin

62'

Y. Gladyshev← K. Tyukavin

63'

G. Varela← D. Fomin

65'

G. Kuchiev← Azamat Kurachinov

68'

A. Kutitsky

71'

Y. Gladyshev

77'

A. Fedorov← V. Avetikov

83'

S. Igboun

84'

G. Kuchiev

86'

R. Timakov← Z. Maysultanov

Dinamo

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Fomin

▼

Moro

⚽

▼

Makarov

N'Jie

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Berishvili

46'▲K. Kolesnikov←▼S. Tskanjyan

46'▲M. Yakovlev←▼S. Garanzha

65'▲G. Kuchiev←▼Azamat Kurachinov

77'▲A. Fedorov←▼V. Avetikov

86'▲R. Timakov←▼Z. Maysultanov

Dinamo Stavropol substitutes

KolesnikovYakovlevKuchievFedorovTimakovEvinovSaitgareev

Manager: S. Schwarz

46'▲S. Igboun←▼D. Makarov

46'▲V. Galkin←▼N. Moro

46'▲Z. Pliev←▼I. Ordets

62'▲Y. Gladyshev←▼K. Tyukavin

63'▲G. Varela←▼D. Fomin

Dinamo Moscow substitutes

IgbounGalkinPlievGladyshevVarelaBalbuenaBudachev