Dinamo St. Petersburg 0–1 Zvezda St. Petersburg

Dinamo St. Petersburg

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zvezda St. Petersburg

M. Andreev 85' (pen)

10/29/2023

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg46%

×Draw25%

Zvezda St. Petersburg29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo St. PetersburgExpected goals in this matchZvezda St. Petersburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.15

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.52

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.15

Dinamo St. Petersburg creates 32% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 89 away

1.36

creates per match

1.22

1.07

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.36

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.22

allows per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.07

Zvezda St. Petersburg

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo St. Petersburg ↓

Zvezda St. Petersburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dinamo St. Petersburg or draw

71%

Dinamo St. Petersburg or Zvezda St. Petersburg

75%

Draw or Zvezda St. Petersburg

54%

Winning margin

Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+

23%

Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals

78%

Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals

45%

Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals

20%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals

68%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals

32%

Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

61%

Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.69 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.36 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.22 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more

46%

level

25%

Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more

29%

Dinamo St. Petersburg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Pikarev← M. Martjanov

46'

A. Bokovoy← A. Gavrilenko

66'

G. Kombarov← V. Karpenko

75'

G. Popov← R. Umarov

83'

N. Aliyev← S. Utkin

83'

M. Andreev← N. Ishchenko

85'

M. AndreevPenalty

90+2'

R. Karavalliev← A. Malenkikh

90+3'

A. Filev← N. Posmashny

Dinamo

Zvezda

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Belorukov

46'▲A. Pikarev←▼M. Martjanov

46'▲A. Bokovoy←▼A. Gavrilenko

75'▲G. Popov←▼R. Umarov

83'▲N. Aliyev←▼S. Utkin

90+2'▲R. Karavalliev←▼A. Malenkikh

Dinamo St. Petersburg substitutes

PikarevBokovoyPopovAliyevKaravalliev

Manager: D. Kombarov

66'▲G. Kombarov←▼V. Karpenko

83'▲M. Andreev←▼N. Ishchenko

90+3'▲A. Filev←▼N. Posmashny

Zvezda St. Petersburg substitutes

KombarovAndreevFilev

Match Recap: Dinamo St. Petersburg vs Zvezda St. Petersburg

Zvezda St. Petersburg beat Dinamo St. Petersburg 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on October 29, 2023.

Goals: M. Andreev (85' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Nova Arena in St. Petersburg.

Dinamo St. Petersburg vs Zvezda St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dinamo St. Petersburg vs Zvezda St. Petersburg