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Dinamo St. Petersburg vs Yadro St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dinamo St. Petersburg
Dinamo St. Petersburg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yadro St. Petersburg
Yadro St. Petersburg
7/31/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Malaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg47%
×Draw25%
Yadro St. Petersburg27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.54
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.10

Dinamo St. Petersburg creates 40% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.36
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.13

allows per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.07
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.73

finishing

Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par
Yadro St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo St. Petersburg ↓

Yadro St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dinamo St. Petersburg or draw
73%
Dinamo St. Petersburg or Yadro St. Petersburg
75%
Draw or Yadro St. Petersburg
53%

Winning margin

Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+
24%
Yadro St. Petersburg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals
79%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals
45%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals
20%
Yadro St. Petersburg 1+ goals
67%
Yadro St. Petersburg 2+ goals
30%
Yadro St. Petersburg 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
64%
Yadro St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

Yadro St. Petersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.36 + Yadro St. Petersburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Yadro St. Petersburg attack 1.13 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more
47%
level
25%
Yadro St. Petersburg scores more
27%

Dinamo St. Petersburg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo St. Petersburg vs Yadro St. Petersburg

Dinamo St. Petersburg beat Yadro St. Petersburg 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on July 31, 2022.

The match was played at Malaya Sportivnaya Arena in St. Petersburg.