Dinamo St. Petersburg 1–0 Torpedo Moskva II

Dinamo St. Petersburg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Torpedo Moskva II

4/9/2023

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 2Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg42%

×Draw27%

Torpedo Moskva II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo St. PetersburgExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.10

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.35

Torpedo Moskva II

1.10

Dinamo St. Petersburg creates 23% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 24 away

1.36

creates per match

1.13

1.07

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.36

Torpedo Moskva II

1.13

allows per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg

1.07

Torpedo Moskva II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo St. Petersburg ↓

Torpedo Moskva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo St. Petersburg or draw

70%

Dinamo St. Petersburg or Torpedo Moskva II

73%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva II

58%

Winning margin

Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+

20%

Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals

74%

Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals

39%

Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals

15%

Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals

67%

Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals

30%

Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

58%

Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

Torpedo Moskva II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.36 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.13 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more

42%

level

27%

Torpedo Moskva II scores more

30%

Dinamo St. Petersburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff