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Dinamo St. Petersburg vs Smolensk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dinamo St. Petersburg
Dinamo St. Petersburg
CANC
00:00
Smolensk
Smolensk
11/14/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg55%
×Draw25%
Smolensk20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.65
Smolensk
0.90

Dinamo St. Petersburg creates 83% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.36
Smolensk
0.73

allows per match

Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.07
Smolensk
1.93

finishing

Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par
Smolensk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo St. Petersburg ↓

Smolensk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo St. Petersburg or draw
80%
Dinamo St. Petersburg or Smolensk
75%
Draw or Smolensk
45%

Winning margin

Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+
30%
Smolensk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals
81%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals
49%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals
23%
Smolensk 1+ goals
59%
Smolensk 2+ goals
23%
Smolensk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
73%
Smolensk (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

Smolensk away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.36 + Smolensk defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.65

Smolensk attack 0.73 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more
55%
level
25%
Smolensk scores more
20%

Dinamo St. Petersburg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dinamo St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dinamo St. Petersburg host Smolensk

November 14, 2021: Dinamo St. Petersburg take on Smolensk in Second League - Group 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.