Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Samarqand vs Surkhon — Super League 2026

Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand
Preview
16:00
Surkhon
Surkhon
12/2/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 30Dinamo Samarkand Stadium
Big match
46%
Dinamo Samarqand
model favours
46%26%28%
1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Dinamo Samarqand46%
×Draw26%
Surkhon28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Samarqand
1.45
Surkhon
1.06

Dinamo Samarqand creates 37% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 97 away

creates per match

Dinamo Samarqand
1.27
Surkhon
0.84

allows per match

Dinamo Samarqand
1.29
Surkhon
1.62

finishing

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par
Surkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Samarqand ↓

Surkhon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Samarqand or draw
72%
Dinamo Samarqand or Surkhon
74%
Draw or Surkhon
54%

Winning margin

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+
23%
Surkhon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals
42%
Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals
18%
Surkhon 1+ goals
65%
Surkhon 2+ goals
29%
Surkhon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)
62%
Surkhon (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Samarqand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Surkhon away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.62 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.27 + Surkhon defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.45

Surkhon attack 0.84 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo Samarqand scores more
46%
level
26%
Surkhon scores more
28%

Dinamo Samarqand at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo Samarqand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Samarqand
WWWLD
Surkhon
LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Samarqand face Surkhon (Super League)

Super League returns with Dinamo Samarqand hosting Surkhon. Match starts December 2, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dinamo Samarqand host Surkhon at Dinamo Samarkand Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.