Dinamo Samarqand 3–0 Surkhon: Result & Stats

Dinamo Samarqand

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Surkhon

S. Mustafoyev 90+1'

K. Khalilov 82'

A. Hojimirzaev 55'

9/26/2024

Super League · Round 20Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Dinamo Samarqand46%

×Draw26%

Surkhon28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo SamarqandExpected goals in this matchSurkhon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.06

Dinamo Samarqand

1.45

Surkhon

1.06

Dinamo Samarqand creates 37% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 97 away

1.27

creates per match

0.84

1.29

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.27

Surkhon

0.84

allows per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.29

Surkhon

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Surkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Samarqand ↓

Surkhon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Samarqand or draw

72%

Dinamo Samarqand or Surkhon

74%

Draw or Surkhon

54%

Winning margin

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+

23%

Surkhon wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals

77%

Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals

42%

Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals

18%

Surkhon 1+ goals

65%

Surkhon 2+ goals

29%

Surkhon 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)

62%

Surkhon (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Samarqand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Surkhon away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.62 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.27 + Surkhon defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.45

Surkhon attack 0.84 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo Samarqand scores more

46%

level

26%

Surkhon scores more

28%

Dinamo Samarqand at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo Samarqand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

J. Abdusalomov

45'

D. Tursunov

46'

B. Askarov← A. Karimov

46'

B. Shamsiyev← T. Dzhamalutdinov

54'

K. Iminov← S. Shaakhmedov

55'

A. Hojimirzaev

65'

J. Kojo

74'

K. Khalilov← Maykon Douglas

74'

V. Oqbutayev← U. Abdullayev

78'

N. Nematkhonov

78'

J. KojoGoal Disallowed - offside

82'

K. Khalilov

89'

B. Nasimov← A. Hojimirzaev

89'

M. Tursunov← D. Mijić

90+1'

S. Mustafoyev

Dinamo

Surkhon

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Hojimirza

▼

Douglas

Kojo

Manager: V. Abramov

54'▲K. Iminov←▼S. Shaakhmedov

74'▲K. Khalilov←▼Maykon Douglas

74'▲V. Oqbutayev←▼U. Abdullayev

89'▲B. Nasimov←▼A. Hojimirzaev

89'▲M. Tursunov←▼D. Mijić

Dinamo Samarqand substitutes

IminovKhalilovOqbutayevNasimovTursunovMuydinovRakhmatullaevRahmatovKayck

Manager: F. Davletov

46'▲B. Askarov←▼A. Karimov

46'▲B. Shamsiyev←▼T. Dzhamalutdinov

Surkhon substitutes

AskarovShamsiyevJaloliddinovRamazonovIkramovJorayevSaidazimovMurkaevAbduhamidov

Match Recap: Dinamo Samarqand vs Surkhon

Dinamo Samarqand beat Surkhon 3-0 in Super League on September 26, 2024.

Goals: A. Hojimirzaev (55'), K. Khalilov (82'), S. Mustafoyev (90+1').

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Samarqand.

Dinamo Samarqand vs Surkhon — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dinamo Samarqand vs Surkhon