Dinamo Samarqand 3–2 Qizilqum: Result & Stats

Dinamo Samarqand

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Qizilqum

S. Kodirkulov 90'

Ratinho 77'

O. Urmonjonov 51'

S. Rakhmatullaev 60'

R. Paparyga 22'

5/25/2025

Super League · Round 11Dinamo Samarkand Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Dinamo Samarqand46%

×Draw27%

Qizilqum27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo SamarqandExpected goals in this matchQizilqum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.00

Dinamo Samarqand

1.41

Qizilqum

1.00

Dinamo Samarqand creates 41% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 97 away

1.27

creates per match

0.71

1.29

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.27

Qizilqum

0.71

allows per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.29

Qizilqum

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Qizilqum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Samarqand ↓

Qizilqum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Samarqand or draw

73%

Dinamo Samarqand or Qizilqum

73%

Draw or Qizilqum

54%

Winning margin

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+

22%

Qizilqum wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals

76%

Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals

41%

Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals

17%

Qizilqum 1+ goals

63%

Qizilqum 2+ goals

26%

Qizilqum 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)

63%

Qizilqum (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Samarqand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Qizilqum away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.55 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.27 + Qizilqum defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

Qizilqum attack 0.71 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo Samarqand scores more

46%

level

27%

Qizilqum scores more

27%

Dinamo Samarqand at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo Samarqand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

R. Paparyga↳ F. Jumankuziev

37'

R. Friday

38'

F. Jumankuziev

46'

K. Khalilov← M. Stanojevic

46'

O. Urmonjonov← R. Friday

46'

S. Kodirkulov← Maykon Douglas

50'

D. Anvarov← S. Turopov

51'

O. Urmonjonov

60'

S. Rakhmatullaev↳ A. Masovic

63'

R. Paparyga

63'

F. Abdurakhmonov← M. Mirakhmadov

77'

Ratinho↳ U. Abdullaev

81'

A. Muzaffarov← R. Paparyga

84'

D. Mijic

84'

S. Rahmatov← F. Jumankuziev

86'

B. Oblakulov← A. Khozhimirzaev

90'

S. Kodirkulov

Dinamo

Qizilqum

1

88

15

23

5

77

A

▼

Jumankuzi

11

Jigauri

70

A

Masovic

8

⚽

Rakhmatul

22

▼

Turopov

10

⚽

▼

13

17

18

22

A

Abdullaev

6

Urozov

88

▼

Stanojevi

7

⚽

Ratinho

10

▼

Khozhimir

5

▼

Douglas

9

▼

Mirakhmad

16

▼

Friday

46'▲K. Khalilov←▼M. Stanojevic

46'▲O. Urmonjonov←▼R. Friday

46'▲S. Kodirkulov←▼Maykon Douglas

63'▲F. Abdurakhmonov←▼M. Mirakhmadov

86'▲B. Oblakulov←▼A. Khozhimirzaev

Dinamo Samarqand substitutes

11Khalilov14Nasimov37Abdurakhmonov27Nemanov25Urmonjonov8Kodirkulov23Oblakulov15Aloxojayev24Bozorov

50'▲D. Anvarov←▼S. Turopov

81'▲A. Muzaffarov←▼R. Paparyga

84'▲S. Rahmatov←▼F. Jumankuziev

Qizilqum substitutes

30Rakhmatov2Norqulov6Usmonov7Anvarov17Muzaffarov18Bekmuradov19Kenzhaev33Rahmatov32Bobokulov