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Dinamo Samarqand vs Olympic — Super League 2026

Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olympic
Olympic
6/13/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6So'g'diyona Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Dinamo Samarqand40%
×Draw26%
Olympic34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Samarqand
1.36
Olympic
1.24

Dinamo Samarqand creates 10% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 39 away

creates per match

Dinamo Samarqand
1.27
Olympic
1.18

allows per match

Dinamo Samarqand
1.30
Olympic
1.46

finishing

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par
Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Samarqand ↓

Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Samarqand or draw
66%
Dinamo Samarqand or Olympic
74%
Draw or Olympic
60%

Winning margin

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+
18%
Olympic wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals
74%
Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals
39%
Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals
16%
Olympic 1+ goals
71%
Olympic 2+ goals
35%
Olympic 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)
54%
Olympic (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Samarqand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

Olympic away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.27 + Olympic defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Olympic attack 1.18 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Samarqand scores more
40%
level
26%
Olympic scores more
34%

Dinamo Samarqand at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Samarqand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Samarqand vs Olympic

Olympic beat Dinamo Samarqand 1-0 in Super League on June 13, 2024.

The match was played at So'g'diyona Sport Majmuasi in Jizzax.