Dinamo Samarqand 1–2 Nasaf: Result & Stats

Dinamo Samarqand

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Nasaf

K. Khalilov 55'

0 A. Ne'matov 90+10' (pen)

M. Rahmatov 88'

10/28/2024

Super League · Round 22Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Dinamo Samarqand31%

×Draw28%

Nasaf42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo SamarqandExpected goals in this matchNasaf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.30

Dinamo Samarqand

1.07

Nasaf

1.30

Nasaf creates 21% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 95 away

1.27

creates per match

1.31

1.29

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.27

Nasaf

1.31

allows per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.29

Nasaf

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Nasaf+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Samarqand ↓

Nasaf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Samarqand or draw

58%

Dinamo Samarqand or Nasaf

72%

Draw or Nasaf

69%

Winning margin

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+

12%

Nasaf wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals

66%

Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals

29%

Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals

9%

Nasaf 1+ goals

73%

Nasaf 2+ goals

37%

Nasaf 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)

42%

Nasaf (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Samarqand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Nasaf away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.88 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.27 + Nasaf defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.07

Nasaf attack 1.31 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinamo Samarqand scores more

31%

level

28%

Nasaf scores more

42%

Nasaf at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

G. Gaybullaev

29'

V. Oqbotayev

46'

K. Khalilov← U. Abdullayev

46'

Marcos Kayck← D. Rakhmatullaev

54'

B. Abdiholiqov← S. Muhitdinov

54'

M. Rahmatov← J. Siddiqov

55'

K. Khalilov

68'

A. Ahmedov← Marcos Kayck

70'

S. Akramov← Z. Abdirahmatov

70'

S. Muhammadiyev← I. Golban

80'

D. Komilov

88'

M. Stanojević← G. Gaybullaev

88'

M. Rahmatov

90+1'

B. Nasimov← F. Narh

90+1'

M. Tursunov← Maykon Douglas

90+10'

0 A. Ne'matovPenalty

Dinamo

Nasaf

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Abramov

46'▲K. Khalilov←▼U. Abdullayev

46'▲Marcos Kayck←▼D. Rakhmatullaev

68'▲A. Ahmedov←▼Marcos Kayck

90+1'▲B. Nasimov←▼F. Narh

90+1'▲M. Tursunov←▼Maykon Douglas

Dinamo Samarqand substitutes

KhalilovKayckAhmedovNasimovTursunovMuydinovAbdurahmonovRahmatovShaakhmedov

Manager: R. Berdyev

54'▲B. Abdiholiqov←▼S. Muhitdinov

54'▲M. Rahmatov←▼J. Siddiqov

70'▲S. Akramov←▼Z. Abdirahmatov

70'▲S. Muhammadiyev←▼I. Golban

88'▲M. Stanojević←▼G. Gaybullaev

Nasaf substitutes

AbdiholiqovRahmatovAkramovMuhammadiyevStanojevićNarzullayevBakhromovErgashevYuel