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Dinamo Samarqand vs Kokand-1912 — Super League 2026

Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand
FT
0 – 1
Kokand-1912
Kokand-1912
S. Jerkinov 1'
8/10/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Stadion Dinamo (Samarqand)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Dinamo Samarqand45%
×Draw26%
Kokand-191229%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Samarqand
1.43
Kokand-1912
1.08

Dinamo Samarqand creates 32% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 72 away

creates per match

Dinamo Samarqand
1.27
Kokand-1912
0.88

allows per match

Dinamo Samarqand
1.29
Kokand-1912
1.58

finishing

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par
Kokand-1912+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Samarqand ↓

Kokand-1912 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Samarqand or draw
71%
Dinamo Samarqand or Kokand-1912
74%
Draw or Kokand-1912
55%

Winning margin

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+
22%
Kokand-1912 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals
76%
Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals
42%
Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals
17%
Kokand-1912 1+ goals
66%
Kokand-1912 2+ goals
29%
Kokand-1912 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)
61%
Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Samarqand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Kokand-1912 away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.27 + Kokand-1912 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kokand-1912 attack 0.88 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dinamo Samarqand scores more
45%
level
26%
Kokand-1912 scores more
29%

Dinamo Samarqand at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dinamo Samarqand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
S. Jerkinov
47'
S. Sindarov
47'
54'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Samarqand vs Kokand-1912

Kokand-1912 beat Dinamo Samarqand 1-0 in Super League on August 10, 2019.

Goals: S. Jerkinov (1').

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo (Samarqand).