Dinamo Samarqand 2–3 Bunyodkor: Result & Stats

Dinamo Samarqand

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Bunyodkor

A. Hojimirzaev 69', 31'

A. Filipović 74', 50'

N. Normurodov 59'

9/14/2024

Super League · Round 18Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Dinamo Samarqand37%

×Draw26%

Bunyodkor36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo SamarqandExpected goals in this matchBunyodkor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.29

Dinamo Samarqand

1.31

Bunyodkor

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 96 away

1.27

creates per match

1.29

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.27

Bunyodkor

1.29

allows per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.29

Bunyodkor

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Bunyodkor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Samarqand ↓

Bunyodkor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Samarqand or draw

64%

Dinamo Samarqand or Bunyodkor

74%

Draw or Bunyodkor

63%

Winning margin

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+

17%

Bunyodkor wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals

73%

Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals

38%

Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals

14%

Bunyodkor 1+ goals

72%

Bunyodkor 2+ goals

37%

Bunyodkor 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)

51%

Bunyodkor (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Samarqand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Bunyodkor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.36 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.27 + Bunyodkor defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bunyodkor attack 1.29 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dinamo Samarqand scores more

37%

level

26%

Bunyodkor scores more

36%

Dinamo Samarqand at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dinamo Samarqand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

K. Iminov

23'

T. Abdukholikov

31'

A. Hojimirzaev

46'

A. Filipović← L. Kaçorri

50'

A. Filipović

53'

N. Normurodov

59'

N. Normurodov

60'

K. Khalilov← Marcos Kayck

60'

S. Shaakhmedov← K. Iminov

68'

A. Rakhimzhonov

69'

A. Hojimirzaev

71'

S. Jo'rabekov← M. Olimjonov

74'

F. Čirjak← A. Toraqulov

74'

A. Filipović

76'

D. Rakhmatullaev← Maykon Douglas

86'

V. Oqbutayev← F. Narh

90+3'

R. Yuldashev← A. Rahimjonov

Dinamo

Bunyodkor

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Abramov

60'▲K. Khalilov←▼Marcos Kayck

60'▲S. Shaakhmedov←▼K. Iminov

76'▲D. Rakhmatullaev←▼Maykon Douglas

86'▲V. Oqbutayev←▼F. Narh

Dinamo Samarqand substitutes

KhalilovShaakhmedovRakhmatullaevOqbutayevAhmedovMuydinovTursunovAbdullayevRustamov

Manager: S. Arslanov

46'▲A. Filipović←▼L. Kaçorri

71'▲S. Jo'rabekov←▼M. Olimjonov

74'▲F. Čirjak←▼A. Toraqulov

90+3'▲R. Yuldashev←▼A. Rahimjonov

Bunyodkor substitutes

FilipovićJo'rabekovČirjakYuldashevMuqimjonovZevadinovTupliyevLjubićTo'khtasinov