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Dinamo Rīga vs Alberts — Cup 2020

Dinamo Rīga
Dinamo Rīga
FT
7 – 0
Alberts
Alberts
P. Pavlovskis 85'
D. Kapkovs 84'
D. Bemba 45'
N. Zarovs 36'
N. Samsonovs 17'
O. Moussima 14', 5'
8/23/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundStadions Rīgas Ostvalda vidusskola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dinamo Rīga70%
×Draw14%
Alberts16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Rīga
4.05
Alberts
2.02

Dinamo Rīga creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dinamo Rīga
3.60
Alberts
0.25

allows per match

Dinamo Rīga
3.80
Alberts
4.50

finishing

Dinamo Rīga+0.00on par
Alberts+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Rīga ↓

Alberts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–22%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
84%16%4.5
69%31%

Double chance

Dinamo Rīga or draw
84%
Dinamo Rīga or Alberts
86%
Draw or Alberts
30%

Winning margin

Dinamo Rīga wins by 2+
53%
Alberts wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dinamo Rīga 1+ goals
98%
Dinamo Rīga 2+ goals
90%
Dinamo Rīga 3+ goals
74%
Alberts 1+ goals
87%
Alberts 2+ goals
60%
Alberts 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Rīga (draw refunded)
81%
Alberts (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Rīga at home — creates 3.60, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

Alberts away — creates 0.25, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Rīga attack 3.60 + Alberts defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 4.05

Alberts attack 0.25 + Dinamo Rīga defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Dinamo Rīga scores more
70%
level
14%
Alberts scores more
16%

Dinamo Rīga at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Dinamo Rīga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
O. Moussima
14'
O. Moussima
17'
N. Samsonovs
36'
N. Zarovs
45'
D. Bemba
84'
D. Kapkovs
85'
P. Pavlovskis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Rīga vs Alberts

Dinamo Rīga beat Alberts 7-0 in Cup on August 23, 2020.

Goals: O. Moussima (5', 14'), N. Samsonovs (17'), N. Zarovs (36'), D. Bemba (45'), D. Kapkovs (84'), P. Pavlovskis (85').

The match was played at Stadions Rīgas Ostvalda vidusskola in Rīga.