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Dinamo Rīga / Staicele vs Smiltene — 1. Liga 2026

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
FT
4 – 0
Smiltene
Smiltene
A. Kirilins 90+4', 34' (pen)
M. Jurkovlanecs 88'
Y. Karashima 48'
10/10/20201. Liga1. Liga · Round 14RTU stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele55%
×Draw20%
Smiltene25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
2.27
Smiltene
1.48

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele creates 53% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 88 away

creates per match

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
1.90
Smiltene
1.31

allows per match

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
1.65
Smiltene
2.65

finishing

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele+0.00on par
Smiltene+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele ↓

Smiltene →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele or draw
75%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele or Smiltene
80%
Draw or Smiltene
45%

Winning margin

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele wins by 2+
34%
Smiltene wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 1+ goals
90%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 2+ goals
66%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 3+ goals
39%
Smiltene 1+ goals
77%
Smiltene 2+ goals
43%
Smiltene 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele (draw refunded)
69%
Smiltene (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

Smiltene away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.65 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele attack 1.90 + Smiltene defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.27

Smiltene attack 1.31 + Dinamo Rīga / Staicele defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele scores more
55%
level
20%
Smiltene scores more
25%

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dinamo Rīga / Staicele will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
A. KirilinsPenalty
48'
Y. Karashima
76'
V. Urigajevs
82'
R. Apsitis
82'
R. Apsitis
88'
M. Jurkovlanecs
90+4'
A. Kirilins

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 4–0 Smiltene

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele beat Smiltene 4-0 in 1. Liga on October 10, 2020.

Goals: A. Kirilins (34' pen, 90+4'), Y. Karashima (48'), M. Jurkovlanecs (88').

The match was played at RTU stadions in Riga.