Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 0–1 Rēzekne FA

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele

FT

0 – 1

Rēzekne FA

4/6/2019

1. Liga · Round 1Stadions Rīgas Ostvalda vidusskola (Rīga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele63%

×Draw18%

Rēzekne FA19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Rīga / StaiceleExpected goals in this matchRēzekne FA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.33

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele

2.51

Rēzekne FA

1.33

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele creates 89% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 84 away

1.90

creates per match

1.01

1.65

allows per match

3.12

creates per match

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele

1.90

Rēzekne FA

1.01

allows per match

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele

1.65

Rēzekne FA

3.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele+0.00on par

Rēzekne FA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele ↓

Rēzekne FA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele or draw

81%

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele or Rēzekne FA

82%

Draw or Rēzekne FA

37%

Winning margin

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele wins by 2+

41%

Rēzekne FA wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 1+ goals

92%

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 2+ goals

71%

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 3+ goals

45%

Rēzekne FA 1+ goals

74%

Rēzekne FA 2+ goals

38%

Rēzekne FA 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele (draw refunded)

77%

Rēzekne FA (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

Rēzekne FA away — creates 1.01, concedes 3.12 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele attack 1.90 + Rēzekne FA defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.51

Rēzekne FA attack 1.01 + Dinamo Rīga / Staicele defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele scores more

63%

level

18%

Rēzekne FA scores more

19%

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dinamo Rīga / Staicele will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff