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Dinamo Pančevo vs Stari Grad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
FT
1 – 0
Stari Grad
Stari Grad
11/6/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 13Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dinamo Pančevo53%
×Draw23%
Stari Grad24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Pančevo
1.82
Stari Grad
1.15

Dinamo Pančevo creates 58% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 34 away

creates per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.71
Stari Grad
1.09

allows per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.21
Stari Grad
1.94

finishing

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par
Stari Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Pančevo ↓

Stari Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dinamo Pančevo or draw
76%
Dinamo Pančevo or Stari Grad
77%
Draw or Stari Grad
47%

Winning margin

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
30%
Stari Grad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
84%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
54%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
27%
Stari Grad 1+ goals
68%
Stari Grad 2+ goals
32%
Stari Grad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
69%
Stari Grad (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Pančevo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 102 matches

Stari Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.71 + Stari Grad defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.82

Stari Grad attack 1.09 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dinamo Pančevo scores more
53%
level
23%
Stari Grad scores more
24%

Dinamo Pančevo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Dinamo Pančevo 1–0 Stari Grad

Dinamo Pančevo beat Stari Grad 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Pančevo.