Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Pančevo vs Podunavac — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
FT
3 – 0
Podunavac
Podunavac
9/8/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 4Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Dinamo Pančevo44%
×Draw25%
Podunavac31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Pančevo
1.52
Podunavac
1.22

Dinamo Pančevo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 44 away

creates per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.71
Podunavac
1.23

allows per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.21
Podunavac
1.32

finishing

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par
Podunavac+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Pančevo ↓

Podunavac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dinamo Pančevo or draw
69%
Dinamo Pančevo or Podunavac
75%
Draw or Podunavac
56%

Winning margin

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
22%
Podunavac wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
78%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
45%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
20%
Podunavac 1+ goals
70%
Podunavac 2+ goals
34%
Podunavac 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
59%
Podunavac (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Pančevo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 102 matches

Podunavac away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.71 + Podunavac defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52

Podunavac attack 1.23 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dinamo Pančevo scores more
44%
level
25%
Podunavac scores more
31%

Dinamo Pančevo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Dinamo Pančevo 3–0 Podunavac

Dinamo Pančevo beat Podunavac 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Pančevo.