Dinamo Pančevo 1–0 Omladinac NB: Result & Stats

Dinamo Pančevo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Omladinac NB

10/27/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 11Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Dinamo Pančevo43%

×Draw26%

Omladinac NB31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo PančevoExpected goals in this matchOmladinac NB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.15

Dinamo Pančevo

1.41

Omladinac NB

1.15

Dinamo Pančevo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 103 away

1.71

creates per match

1.09

1.21

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Dinamo Pančevo

1.71

Omladinac NB

1.09

allows per match

Dinamo Pančevo

1.21

Omladinac NB

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par

Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Pančevo ↓

Omladinac NB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Pančevo or draw

69%

Dinamo Pančevo or Omladinac NB

74%

Draw or Omladinac NB

57%

Winning margin

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+

20%

Omladinac NB wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals

76%

Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals

41%

Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals

17%

Omladinac NB 1+ goals

68%

Omladinac NB 2+ goals

32%

Omladinac NB 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)

58%

Omladinac NB (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Pančevo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 102 matches

Omladinac NB away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.71 + Omladinac NB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.41

Omladinac NB attack 1.09 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dinamo Pančevo scores more

43%

level

26%

Omladinac NB scores more

31%

Dinamo Pančevo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff