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Dinamo Pančevo vs Mladost Novi Sad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
FT
1 – 0
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
5/22/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 36Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dinamo Pančevo33%
×Draw25%
Mladost Novi Sad42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Pančevo
1.30
Mladost Novi Sad
1.52

Mladost Novi Sad creates 17% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.71
Mladost Novi Sad
1.84

allows per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.21
Mladost Novi Sad
0.89

finishing

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Pančevo ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Pančevo or draw
58%
Dinamo Pančevo or Mladost Novi Sad
75%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
67%

Winning margin

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
14%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
73%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
37%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
14%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
78%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
45%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
43%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Pančevo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 102 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 1.84, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.71 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.30

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.84 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dinamo Pančevo scores more
33%
level
25%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
42%

Mladost Novi Sad at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Pančevo vs Mladost Novi Sad

Dinamo Pančevo beat Mladost Novi Sad 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Pančevo.