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Dinamo Pančevo vs Hajduk 1912 Kula — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dinamo Pančevo
Dinamo Pančevo
FT
1 – 0
Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
9/10/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 5Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Dinamo Pančevo50%
×Draw24%
Hajduk 1912 Kula26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Pančevo
1.73
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.19

Dinamo Pančevo creates 45% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 72 away

creates per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.71
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.18

allows per match

Dinamo Pančevo
1.21
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.76

finishing

Dinamo Pančevo+0.00on par
Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Pančevo ↓

Hajduk 1912 Kula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Pančevo or draw
74%
Dinamo Pančevo or Hajduk 1912 Kula
76%
Draw or Hajduk 1912 Kula
50%

Winning margin

Dinamo Pančevo wins by 2+
27%
Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dinamo Pančevo 1+ goals
82%
Dinamo Pančevo 2+ goals
52%
Dinamo Pančevo 3+ goals
25%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
70%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
33%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Pančevo (draw refunded)
65%
Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Pančevo at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 102 matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Pančevo attack 1.71 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.18 + Dinamo Pančevo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dinamo Pančevo scores more
50%
level
24%
Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
26%

Dinamo Pančevo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dinamo Pančevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Pančevo vs Hajduk 1912 Kula

Dinamo Pančevo beat Hajduk 1912 Kula 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Pančevo.